A few days into the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and many reports have been published highlighting the impressive resistance which seems to be foiling the latter’s plan. It is deemed that Russia has been making less progress than expected. In this article, we shall be discussing possibilities on how the invasion can end.
A point of no return
Certain lines have been crossed and many experts and strategists are expecting a conflict which will last for the long-term. In the most positive scenario, where Russia withdraws its attack and Ukraine maintains its independence, it is highly unlikely that Europe can revert to the status it held prior to the conflict.
A Russian regime
It is difficult to imagine a scenario where Vladimir Putin will cease his attack and if given his way, Ukraine may potentially fall under Russian regime. This would follow by a new government being set up for Ukraine which will be heavily influenced by what Russia demands, ending the hopes of NATO or European Union membership.
Russia taking parts of Ukraine
Following this military conflict, a potential outcome could be one where Ukraine is partitioned. This could be the case if Russia continues to solidify its presence in eastern Ukraine, especially in two pro-Russian republics within the Donbas region. This would potentially lead to the erosion of Ukrainian identity.
A new government which is formed to serve Russia’s bidding is not likely to appeal to all segments within society. Ukrainian factions will revolt against a puppet government and conflict will continue to prevail. After all these years of independence, one can expect that these factions will do anything possible to bring down such a government. There is of course the possibility that these efforts will be nullified by Russian military.
A Russian failure
One scenario is that the current conflict may drain too much of Russia’s resolve, forcing a withdrawal. This would not be a new failure for Russia, as in 1979 it had to withdraw its attack on Afghanistan. This was a conflict that lasted ten years and led to the deaths of fifteen thousand Russian soldiers. Although a similar scenario may seem like a positive outcome for Ukraine, the repercussions of such a long-lasting conflict on it as a country would be highly devastating.
A conflict between NATO and Russia
The invasion of Ukraine may be paused due to the potential conflict which might arise with NATO. So far, the alliance has not intervened, however if Russian military action were to spill over other countries which are NATO members, escalation would be of a totally different level. This development would surpass the tensions currently in place due to the existing conflict.
How do you think the invasion will end? Let us know your views in the comments section below.