Several commentators are discussing consumer pent-up demand and a subsequent post-pandemic boom once the world manages to control COVID-19 well. Science has made incredible inroads in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, creating effective vaccines and having these distributed in just about a year. The news is also positive considering that the vaccines currently being administered seem highly effective against the most worrying COVID-19 variants.
A v-shaped recovery?
This type of recovery is being dubbed as the most ideal. In essence it means that the world’s economy will rebound strongly, reaching pre-pandemic levels in a short timeframe. This type of recovery would also help the smaller businesses that suffered profoundly during the course of this pandemic. Such a recovery would be fueled by consumers who are willing to make up for lost time and invest. In view of the fact that rebounds are expected in 2021, we may be setting ourselves for a couple of years of solid economic growth.
Pandemic long-term effects
Although we may encounter a post-pandemic boom once COVID-19 is contained, one must not forget that this disease has left significant scars and the psychological trauma will linger on, even when the recovery gains speed.
Plenty to look forward to
In view of calculated restrictions, a fast-paced vaccination programme and cautious re-opening, locally we are recording low levels of infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Herd immunity is expected in the month of June, with tourism set to kick-start. All eyes will be on this industry as most countries globally seek to re-awaken it from the graveyard it finds itself in. With hopeful herd immunity being reached both locally and globally, we would also expect to see the relieving of further restrictions, including the removal of the mask measure. In order to instil confidence in the people, public health measures must cease to allow people the liberty and freedom that they were once accustomed to.
Confidence as the key factor
Economic activity will need to be stimulated by injecting confidence. Once the situation is under control, the government has a key role to play in instilling confidence and appetite for investment. The current relief measures will not be enough to ensure businesses kick-start activity once the COVID-19 pandemic is behind us.
Businesses, banks, industry leaders, entrepreneurs and people with disposable income will need to have the necessary confidence to enable a positive economic impact.